Then came the end of the world
Our beloved historic enemies have decided to leave the Franco-German corral. And I say And well they do! If a country throughout history has shown personality and ability to work for themselves is the United Kingdom.
Honestly, if I had voted English leave, I would have voted with the heart and not the wallet. As I will do this Sunday. With the portfolio would vote to my (former) party ever. But so much has happened and there are so many embarrassments I vote with the heart … and the sun comes Antequera. When new personal income tax rise cabrearé me I like a monkey, but you see, so many years of kleptocracy red and blue have led me to a level of boredom that I vote new things.
Is the end of the modern world? Will we drink tea? Do I have to throw away my precious Barbour? NO, I believe IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD, else are the changes that may come. And not for English part I think it will be much less than what we expect.
The financial industry is a machine to sell TODAY and neither knows nor cares anything tomorrow. Once again we have seen headlines like “We believe the Brexit not going to give” “How is discounting the market that there will be Brexit?” “The market discounted the defeat of Brexit” … then the most reliable indicators were that the pound up to maximum of 5 months (like five months were a key time period), the bags have gone up the last days before the vote, that the odds of a win Brexit had risen from 25% to 43% (how noses that probability calculation is done) and the best of the best and brandished like a Holy Grail: betting that gave an overwhelming victory to stay. In fact a professional international manager renowned said something like: “people are paying more attention to betting because they have been more reliable in past referendums anticipate that surveys”. I will suggest both EFPA Spain and CFA Institute in its study programs eliminate part of economic analysis and introduce a new section that is called “Anticipating markets through bookmakers, zodiacal signs and coffee grounds” .
While this form of work critical understand it. The critical because there are many small investors who invest the pace of news and statements guru turn. How many purchases have occurred in recent days by the influence of the media. Possibly many. You see IAG fires, they tell you that betting anticipate well what happens, you get nervous, you’re being escaping the rocket action … everyone buys … for what you do: buy. And while I understand. I understand that the financial industry sells investment and in the same way that when we go to Mc Donalds not tell us “marchese home already you potbellied” the financial industry will not tell “leave money on current account painting storm.” No, I will not tell you (unless you pay for the pure and counseling and has a portfolio manager advisor profile and not “sell-funds”). If McDonald’s does not sell hamburgers have no income. The same happens to the financial industry if it does not sell investment products. With money in the current account or in a depositillo no income worth.
Neither the media or (sometimes) managers make the numbers
With regard to direct impact of Brexit I think it will be much less than what we are selling (and EYE speak direct, indirect see it at the end of post).
Two strokes taken from a web as complicated as the Foreign Minister of Spain source.
Where exports UK? (Rank)
US with 14.9% of sales, Germany 10%, Switzerland 7.3%, China 5.9%, France 5.9% and 5.7% Netherlands
Where it matters UK?
Germany 14.8%, China 10%, US 9.2%, Netherlands 7.5%, France 6.2%
Total exports (million euros) UK 414,302. EU destined 182,774 (44%)
Total imports (million euros) UK 558,596. EU from 303,840 (54%)
Macro: GDP + 2.2% Unemployment 5.1% of GDP Public Debt 80.5%
So, without much analysis we see, as was to be expected that UK is different. Much United States for everything (and just wait if it goes Trump) and a macro who caught her: growth, full employment and debt under control. It is true that the second customer is Germany … but it is also the first provider Who loses more? It is true that UK exported 182,744 million euros to the European Union … ..but buys by 303,840 million euros. I do not know as what you see but it gives me that UK will enter a plis plas in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) which is a relic stuck to the EU and is now only consists of Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland and that will allow them to continue interacting with the EU as if nothing.
EFTA was established in 1960 as an alternative to the EEC (European Economic Community) and the United Kingdom was one of its founding members (History is a horny). Think like button shows that 74% of Norway’s foreign trade with the EU, ie actually works as a member of the single European space. The price is to accept the free movement of people and workers accept part of the European regulation keeping opinion but no vote in the European Parliament. You have to pay four dollars for the EU and something we really like the English is that it has complete independence for bilateral relations with third countries (non-EU). And what about Shengen someone will say? Gentlemen, UK is not part of Schengen. it never has and never will.
My thought:
The future of the Franco-German Europe is going through a fiscal union first (same taxes). If we have the same currency and taxes it puts igualitos Brussels and for all if we are a step away from a politically united Europe. the governments of each country will not be lost but if they remove powers to Brussels will (a kind of state of the Spanish autonomies but big). German economic thought softened by France and Italy and Hispanic, Portuguese and Greek continue to offer, sun, beach, fresh fruit and olive oil (first cold pressed course) will be imposed.
If you do not get to that state of union, EFTA countries will gain more and more members. Input UK EFTA countries will be something else. And if Berlin does not react (sorry, Brussels meant), soon we will see the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden as new members.
To end: beyond Brexits, from the highs of April 2015, the Eurostoxx 50 is bearish. Today and rabid short is just a little more bearish really even have broken the February lows! It is possible that the Fed not raise rates until 2017 and quizás..y moment I say perhaps, and only speculator key is enough to win in long this summer. We’ll see.
Good investment and God save the Queen ‘