The Brexit, the option for the UK to leave the European Union, has won the referendum and has done literally against all odds. As the day approached the referendum, quotes bookmakers had become one of the biggest trends relating to observe voting, taken into account up to the stock and currency markets.
Bettors looked so clear that the UK would remain within the EU that the quotas came to reflect a 91% chance that the stay be given. More than 70% of the bets were in favor of permanence, which led to raise the fee for the Brexit to 7 euros per euro played.
Although no official figures, yes there are estimates calculated that the query has moved more than 60 million euros in bets. Such amount of money seemed to be a sign indicating the preferences of the British, but the end result has been a lot of failed bets and minority bettors who gambled by Brexit enjoying some substantial benefits.
Why bettors have failed?
Bettor’s profile in the UK is that of a young person. According to a government report of the Gambling Commission, 40% of bettors are between 18 and 35 years, when only represent 20% of the total population. In front is the 29% of bettors who are over 55 years, which corresponds quite well with 28% of the total population with that age. The report also reflects that bet plus other upper-middle and lower middle classes. Curiously, the British are the most fervent Scots.
Comparing these data with the elections, it could be argued that bettors have been successful, but as regards their social profile. Indeed, those under 43 years have voted to remain in the EU, as well as classes with better education and jobs. Similarly, the Scots voted overwhelmingly to stay within the EU.
If bets have erred in their predictions it is because bettors are not a good sociological reflection of the entire British people. The overrepresentation of younger citizens in all bettors has been a distortion that almost nobody had to take into account under the quotas that have come to pay.
And what about Spain?
In Spain similar to the UK in terms of player profiles regarding the whole society situation occurs. Bookmakers and Betfair Sportium or have open markets in the upcoming elections 26J. It would not be strange that they were producing the same distortions depending on the preferences of the younger vote.